2009 NFL Survivor Elimination Pool - Week 6 Pick Strategy

Well, the worst team (Oakland) isn’t playing on the road against the best team (New York Giants) this week, so your week 6 pick will be a little more interesting than week 5. After looking at all of the match-ups on the week 6 schedule, and computing the team score differential (after taking home field advantage into account), here are the projected blowouts:

1. JACKSONVILLE vs. St. Louis – St. Louis is the worst team that Jacksonville still gets to play at home this season. So, if your 2009 survivor pool pick set is going to include Jacksonville (and hasn’t already) this is the best week to use them. However, Jacksonville (23rd best team score) is one of the bad teams and their team score differential compared with St. Louis isn’t large enough to warrant consideration as a week 6 pick.

2. WASHINGTON vs. Kansas City – Washington’s situation in week 6 is similar to Jacksonville’s in that Kansas City is the worst team Washington still gets to play at home this season. And, as was the case with Jacksonville, Washington isn’t a good enough team to ensure a victory even playing at home against the worst teams. So, don’t look for Washington or Jacksonville to get any more mentions in future week’s recommended pick post.

3. CINCINNATI vs Houston - Cincinnati is good (4-1 record, 9th best team score) and Houston is bad (21st best team score), but later this season Cincinnati still gets to play Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City (in weeks 12, 13, and 16), all at home, and all three of those teams are worse than Houston. So week 6 is not the time to use Cincinnati.

4. Philadelphia vs. OAKLAND – (Skip this paragraph if you’ve used Philly already) Philadelphia is the only road team under consideration this week. Looking through Philly’s remaining 2009 schedule, their only other “easy” win on the schedule might be Washington at home in week 12. But, also in week 12, Atlanta has Tampa Bay at home and Dallas has Oakland at home. So if you don’t pick Philly this week, you might not ever use them (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing).

5. NEW ENGLAND vs. TENNESSEE. Besides this game, New England has two other “easy” wins remaining on their 2009 schedule: Carolina at home in week 14 and Jacksonville at home in week 16. However, in the latest team rankings, Tennessee is worst than Jacksonville and Carolina (hard to believe a 13-0 team from 2008 has fallen so far!). Assuming you have already picked Baltimore, my model is telling me to save New England for week 14. If you still have Baltimore available, then you might not ever need New England.

6. NEW YORK JETS vs. Buffalo. The Jets have a predicted win coming up this week. However, their match-up does not have the largest disparity. That seems to be a pattern with the Jets. Looking through their remaining schedule, they also have Carolina and Jacksonville at home, however, there always seem to be even bigger blowouts to choose from those weeks. It doesn’t look like the Jets are making it into the model at all this week.

7. GREEN BAY vs. Detroit – Detroit is the worst team that Green Bay still gets to play at home this season. So, if your 2009 survivor pool pick set is going to include Green Bay and hasn’t already, this is the best week to use them. But I think there are better match-ups this week.

8. PITTSBURGH vs. Cleveland – I saved my recommended pick for last. This isn’t actually Pittsburgh easiest game remaining on the 2009 schedule. They also get Oakland at home in week 13 and Oakland (ranked dead last) is even worse than Cleveland (ranked 5th to last). However, also in week 13 the Colts have the Titans at home, which is an even wider disparity game than Pittsburgh and Oakland. So my model tells me that this is the time to use Pittsburgh, even though it’s not their easiest game remaining. This match-up is a wider disparity than the first 7 mentioned, even though it isn’t Pittsburgh’s widest disparity on their remaining schedule. If you’ve already used Pittsburgh, the model says Philadelphia is the next best option.