Pick Your Running Backs First? - Part 2

My friend/co-worker Rich and I were discussing our upcoming fantasy football draft for our work league (~14 teams). Rich told me that last year every starting RB was taken after the first two rounds (Our league settings are to have 2 RB roster spots per team). In my last post I mentioned that I am going to ignore this common draft plan and pick the best available player with each pick (assuming I have not filled that position yet). I got to worrying because if everyone else picks their running backs first and then some of them pick even more RBs for their bench before I have picked my starting running backs, then the RBs I end up might not be 2 of the best 30 RBs in the league. The graph in my last post only showed the top 30 and I worried that since their are ~30 NFL teams and ~30 starting RBs in the NFL, that the drop-off after rank 30 might be intense. Maybe my last graph failed to capture this. So here's the graph for the top 60 fantasy RBs from last season:


Phewf! There's no severe drop-off after 30. It looks like the best backup RBs in the NFL are nearly worth as many fantasy points as the worst starting RBs. Well, my strategy is reaffirmed. Please let me know if anyone can convince me that I still need to pick my RBs first!

Pick your running backs first?

I saw a fantasy football segment on Sportscenter last night. The analyst advised fantasy drafters to be sure to pick their running backs early on, before the other positions. I figured this must mean that the drop-off in talent at the RB position must be steep compared to QB and WR. I wanted to verify this myself so I calculated the 2006 Fantasy points earned by the top 30 RBs, WRs, and QBs. I graphed the fantasy points versus the position rank to check the "steepness" of the fantasy value dropoff at each position:

I assigned the typical Yahoo fantasy point values:

• QB: 1 pt. / 25 passing yrds + 4 pts / TD minus 1 pt / INT
• RB: 6 pts / TD + 1 pt / 10 rushing yrds
• WR: 6 pts / TD + 1 pt / 10 reception yrds

I can't see what on earth the sportcenter analyst was talking about, there does not seem to be any steep talent drop off with any of the positions. I can tell that the first 10 or so picks are likely to be RBs and QBs, but once the first round goes by, it looks like there should be an equal mix of all 3.

Can anyone explain to me why the analyst advised using your first 2 or 3 picks on running backs? Thanks.

Sit them down!

In all fantasy sports leagues, there are categories with 4 different aims:

• high total (Blocks, Stolen Bases, Touchdown Passes)
• low total (Turnovers, Losses, Flagrant Fouls, Errors)
• high average (Ft %, Slugging %, Pass Completion %)
• low average (ERA, WHIP)

In head to head leagues, you should review your matchup midweek and consider benching some of your players for the rest of the week. For example, in many fantasy baseball leagues, the pitching categories present an opportunity where some active management can help you protect midweek leads. In my baseball leagues, the pitching categories are:

• Wins (high total)
• Losses (low total)
• Saves (high total)
• Strikeouts (high total)
• ERA (low average)
• WHIP (low average)

If midweek you are winning the losses, ERA, and WHIP categories, and you feel that you are unlikely to be passed or pass your opponent in Wins, Strikeouts, or Saves, then you should consider benching your pitchers for the rest of the week.

Catcher

Unless you have Victor Martinez, Russel Martin, Jorge Posada, Brian McCann, or Joe Mauer, you shouldn't be overly satisfied with your catcher. Check to see if anyone in your league has more than one of the catchers in the above list. In my league, one team has Martin and Posada. That same team also has 2 good first basemen occupying the first base and utility spot, leaving either Martin or Posada on his bench each night. I'm going to go after one of his catchers by offering him an improvement over his current utility spot player with some of the extra talent on my bench.

Fantasy Baseball Trade Deadline Approaching

Look for a team in your league that is incredibly bad in one category. Then, see if that team has one player who, unlike the rest of the team, is very good at that one particular category. Make that team an offer for that player. Afterall, the category superstar is adding no value to his current team (he can't win the category all by himself). The manager should be happy to get someone of slightly lesser overall value in return.

Example: My friend Marc's team has only 1 closer (Mariano Rivera). He has only won the saves category one week all season. I point out to Marc that although Mariano Rivera is a dominant closer, he's adding no value to his team. We decide that Mariano is rated the 80th best fantasy player in baseball and Marc is happy to trade him to me for an outfielder ranked 100th.

Welcome

Welcome. My name is Zach. Someday I want to start a fantasy sports consulting company. I have some original, advanced ideas for winning fantasy sports leagues and here I will share them! I appreciate all your comments and feedback.