My complaints for the default Yahoo Fantasy Baseball League Settings

The standard Yahoo! fantasy baseball league is based on 5 batting categories and 5 pitching categories (sometimes referred to as 5x5 "5 by 5"). The default batting cateogires are runs, RBIs, HRs, stolen bases, and batting average. The default pitching categories are wins, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, and saves. If you are creating your own custom league, I highly recommend a different setup. If you've already joined a custom league, I think you should petition to your comissioner to make some changes. And here is why:

1. The homerun is grossly over-counted and homerun hitters are over-valued. When a player hits a homer, it is triple counted, as he is also given a run and an RBI in the stats. I know the home run is the most glamorous statistic in baseball, but it really has no place alongside runs and RBIs in a fantasy baseball league. The other problem with having HRs is that doubles and triples aren't counted. As a fantasy manager you should cheer extra when one of your players gets an extra base hit, however, with the yahoo default settings, a triple is only as good as a single. I recommend using total bases instead of home runs. That way, players are properly rewarded for their home runs and extra base hits.

2. Walks don't count for anything. When one of your fantasy players draw a walk, you sigh from a plate appearance where you didn't improve your batting average. I think AVG should be replaced with OBP. Like the home run, average is another glamour statistical category. However, if you were a real baseball manager and your batter walks to leadoff an inning, you're just as happy as if he gets a single.

3. The minimum innings is only 7! 7 innings can easily be reached with 4 closers. If you do happen to be in a league with 7 as the minimum, you shouldn't bother drafting any starting pitchers at all. Closers only pitch one inning at a time and have consistently better ERAs and WHIPs than starting pitchers. A pitcing staff of just 4 closers will consistly win the ERA, WHIP, and saves category every week. Furthermore, you only need to spend 4 middle-round draft picks to get them, using picks you would have used on starters to improve your batting lineup.

Fantasy Baseball Debate - Part 4

The last several posts have been a lot of theory. You are most likely wondering by now how any of this information can actually help your 2009 fantasy baseball team. So, let's talk about real players!

Consider the following 3 first basemen's 2008 statistics:

Name	Plate Appearances	HR	RBI	AVG
Prince Fielder	694	34	102	280
Adrian Gonzalez	700	36	119	280
Carlos Pena	607	31	102	250

Now consider the portion of these 3 first basemen's statistics that they compiled versus right handed pitching:

Name	Plate Appearances	HR	RBI	AVG
Prince Fielder	461	24	67	300
Adrian Gonzalez	431	24	81	320
Carlos Pena	392	23	75	280

Look at those high batting averages! HR and RBI production are also up against right handed pitching (RHP).

Imagine if you had these 3 first basemen and platooned them in your 1B and utility slot (and kept one of them on the bench each night). Assuming 75% of starting pitchers are right handers, there would be an 84.4% chance that 2 or all 3 of your first basemen would be facing right handed pitching on any given night. 14.1% of the time only 1 of your first basmen will face a RHP, and you will have to fill your 1B and utility slot with one good and one bad matchup. Finally, 1.6% of the time all 3 of them will face LHP and you will have to fill your 1B and utility slot with bad matchups (If you're wondering how the 84.4%, 14.1%, or 1.6% were calculated, let me know and I'll post the math).

The bottom line here is that you can dramtically increase the value of some of these hard hitting left handed hitters by picking a few of them that are eligible for the same position and then platooning them. Other hard hitting first basemen who in 2008 had batting averages versus RHP that were over 15 points higher than their overall averages include Ryan Howard (268 vs 251), Adam Dunn (253 vs 236), Aubrey Huff (321 vs 304), and James Loney (305 vs 289).

Fantasy Baseball Debate - Part 3

The original third basemen debate asked you to compare a pair of lefties with a pair of switch hitters. We found that the pair of lefties was better and would produce a .309 average from your third basemen slot compared to a .300 average from a pair of switch hitting third basemen.

let's expand the options of this debate. We already know that a lefty-lefty duo is better than two switch hitters (LL > SS). However what about the other possibilities for a pair of third basemen: RL, RS, LS, or RR? Can any of these duos do better than the pair of lefties for your fantasy team?

Assume all the third basemen listed below are on different MLB teams. Assume the stats listed below are what their stats will be this coming year. If you could have any 2 of them on your fantasy team, which duo do you want?

Name	Bats	R	RBI	SB	HR	AVG	VS LHP AVG	VS RHP AVG
Al	Switch Hitter	100	100	25	25	300	300	300
Bob	Switch Hitter	100	100	25	25	300	300	300
Chase	Lefty	100	100	25	25	290	215	315
Dave	Lefty	100	100	25	25	290	215	315
Eric	Righty	100	100	25	25	240	315	215
Frank	Righty	100	100	25	25	240	315	215

P.S. Al and Bob would not be a good answer (even though they have the 2 highest overall averages!) because we already saw in the last post that Chase and Dave are a superior duo.

Fantasy Baseball Debate - Part 2

The optimal move here is to "Platoon" the lefties. Dave (see his comment in the previous post) is correct, the pair of lefties is the better choice, even though their overall averages are lower than the other pair. Here is an explanation in my words:

According to Chase and Dave's split stats: 215 vs LHP, 315 vs RHP, and 290 overall, you can determine that Chase and Dave must see LHP 25% of the time and RHP 75% of the time, because 215*(x) + 315*(1-x) = 290, X equals 25% and 1 minus X equals 75%.

Since Chase and Dave are on separate MLB teams, they each have a 3/4 shot at facing a RHP on any given night and there is only a (1/4)*(1/4) = 1/16 chance that they will both face LHP on any given night. So with Chase and Dave, 15/16 of the time as a manager you will be able to choose one of them that is facing a RHP that evening and 1/16 of the time you will have to choose one of them even though they are facing a LHP that evening. 15/16 of the time you can expect a 315 average out of your 3B and 1/16 of the time you will only get 215. The overall average you can then expect from your 3B slot would be (15/16)*(315) + (1/16)*(215), which is 309, which is higher than the 300 you would get out of the pair of switch hitters.

What lessons can you take from this counter-intuitive example and apply to your fantasy baseball draft strategy? Let's save that for another post

Fantasy Baseball Debate - Part 1

Which pair of third basemen would you rather have on your fantasy team? Assume Al, Bob, Chase, and Dave are on 4 different MLB teams. Assume the stats listed below are what their stats will be this coming year.

Name	Bats	R	RBI	SB	HR	AVG	VS LHP AVG	VS RHP AVG
Al	Switch Hitter	100	100	25	25	300	300	300
Bob	Switch Hitter	100	100	25	25	300	300	300

OR

Name	Bats	R	RBI	SB	HR	AVG	VS LHP AVG	VS RHP AVG
Chase	Lefty	100	100	25	25	290	215	315
Dave	Lefty	100	100	25	25	290	215	315

As you can see, Al, Bob, Chase, and David are nearly identical except with their batting averages. Al and Bob are switch hitters and are 300 hitters against lefties and righties. Chase and Dave are both lefties, and hit 315 againt righties, 215 against lefties, and 290 overall. Which pair of third basemen would you rather have on your fantasy team?