Thursday, March 11, 2010

PVORP - Projected Value Over Replacement Player

Question: Who is a better to have as the 1st player on your fantasy team: catcher "AA" who will produce 80 runs, 80 rbi, and 15 SBs or CF "BB" who will produce 90 runs, 90 rbis, and 25 SBs?

Answer: AA who has less overall value, is the more valuable fantasy player, b/c he plays catcher. Catcher's don't produce much offense compared to outfielders. If you choose AA, you're still going to have to add a CF... and if you choose BB, you're still going to need a catcher. The point here is that AA + a CF you might add later will likely have more combined value than BB + a different catcher that you might add later.

So the lesson here is that you're evaluating players, don't compare them with each other, compare them with a who else is available at that position. Here is an example of the production you can expect to get from the 12th best player at each of the following positions in runs, RBIs, and stolen bases:

Position R RBI SB
C 50 58 1
1B 84 94 4
2B 78 67 12
3B 77 77 6
SS 76 64 14
LF 79 77 15
CF 80 72 23
RF 80 83 13

AS you can see catcher AA described above is 30, 22, and 14 runs, rbis, and SBs above "replacement" level and CF BB is 10, 18, and 3 runs, rbis, and SBs repectively above replacement level. 30, 22, and 14 are all higher than 10, 18, and 3, so that is why AA is better than BB

Real life example: One of my fantasy leagues, (my family leagues) has keeper rules where you can pick any 2 players from your team the previous year to be assigned to your team this year in the last 2 rounds of the draft. I chose to keep Joe Mauer instead of A-Rod! Yes, A-Rod has more overall production, but the goal is to get the most production across every roster spot. And I think I can do better at C & 3B by starting that duo off with Mauer and adding a 3B later than by starting with A-Rod and adding another catcher later.

 

© 2010 Zach Samuels

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