My friend/co-worker Rich and I were discussing our upcoming fantasy football draft for our work league (~14 teams). Rich told me that last year every starting RB was taken after the first two rounds (Our league settings are to have 2 RB roster spots per team). In my last post I mentioned that I am going to ignore this common draft plan and pick the best available player with each pick (assuming I have not filled that position yet). I got to worrying because if everyone else picks their running backs first and then some of them pick even more RBs for their bench before I have picked my starting running backs, then the RBs I end up might not be 2 of the best 30 RBs in the league. The graph in my last post only showed the top 30 and I worried that since their are ~30 NFL teams and ~30 starting RBs in the NFL, that the drop-off after rank 30 might be intense. Maybe my last graph failed to capture this. So here's the graph for the top 60 fantasy RBs from last season:
Phewf! There's no severe drop-off after 30. It looks like the best backup RBs in the NFL are nearly worth as many fantasy points as the worst starting RBs. Well, my strategy is reaffirmed. Please let me know if anyone can convince me that I still need to pick my RBs first!
Friday, August 17, 2007
Pick Your Running Backs First? - Part 2
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Wait I thought you said you were still worried about this (that you might be forced to pick RBs if everyone else is) I don't see why you would be forced to do this, especially with the graph you show here.
ReplyDeleteI think it really depends on whether you want to win or not. If you're up for not winning, this is a helluva strategy.
ReplyDeleteMr. Conspirator, you gotta back up your comment with some logic.
ReplyDeleteLogic? Okay.
ReplyDeleteYou're looking at the wrong marginals. Put your game theory hat on for a moment. What is your best response when you know that everyone is going after RBs in the first two rounds? There are (roughly speaking) two responses:
1) You take RBs too
2) You take the "best available player" - let's simplify and assume that this gets you the #1 QB and the #1 WR
Let's move forward into round 3 assuming you went with the proposed second option. At this point in a 14 team league (and again, I simplify but the logic will generalize), you are going to have a top QB, a top WR and will end up with two crappy RBs. Contrast that with your opponents who will have solid RBs and still will have opportunities to pick up some of the top QBs and WRs.
Try simulating both strategies under the given prior that your opponents will start off by going after RBs. See which strategy appears like a "best response" after the first few rounds.
I do agree with you. If your opponents only pick RBs, then you need to also. But if you're opponents have a half a brain and start going for some of the best QBs and WRs in rounds 1 and 2 also, then you need to as well.
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