2009 NFL Survivor Elimination Pool - Week 5 Pick Strategy

Let's review all of the projected blowouts and large point spread games of week 5 and see which ones might make for a good week 5 pick.

1. Cincinatti @ Baltimore - Baltimore is a 9 point favorite. However, see the team scores below. Baltimore is one of the best teams at 82 points and Cincinatti is above average with 54 points. If you didn't use Baltimore in week 3 when they hosted Cleveland, I would recommend saving them for week 14 when they host Detroit, and you will see as you read on that there are better blowouts to choose from this week.

2. Pittsburgh @ Detroit - Pittsburgh is a 10.5 point favorite. Pittsburgh is scored a 64 below and Detroit is 23. However, you should save Pittsburgh for next week (week 6) or week 13 when they host Cleveland and then Oakland as these two teams are even worse than Detroit, and Pittsburgh gets to play them at home, and you will see there are even better options mentioned below.

3. Minnesota @ St. Louis - Minnesota is a 9.5 point favorite. St. Louis is currently the worst team, but why pick Minnesota on the road in week 5 when you can pick them at home in week 10 against Detroit?

4. Dallas @ KC - Dallas is a 9 point favorite. KC is quite bad, but once again we see that later in the season Dallas has a matchup at home against an equally bad team, Oakland, in week 12.

And now for the best two options of the week:

5. If you have the NY Giants available, this is the perfect week to use them. They are hosting Oakland, which is the worst team they have left to face on their 2009 schedule. Unlike with the first 4 matchups discussed, there is no good reason to save this favorite.

6. If you've already used the NY Giants (or don't think Eli's foot will hold up this week), your next best alternative in week 5 is to use Philadelphia at home against Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is the worst team remaining on the Eagles' 2009 schedule, so just like with the Giants, there is no better week to use the Eagles than now in week 5.

The model prefers the Giants this week over the Eagles because Oakland and Tampa Bay are almost equally bad, but the Giants are the #1 team (see previous post) and the Eagles are (only) #6.

In the rare event you have already used NYG and Philly, the model is telling me that Minnesota is the best choice of those first 4 games mentioned.