Ok, the model says to go with the Chiefs at home against the Bills this week. However, I am personally not going to listen to my model this week and I'm going with the Jets instead. My model was going to save the Jets for week 17. But with the best teams resting players in week 17, I don't think it's worth saving one of the few best teams till then. Also, the Jets are coming off a bye week and the best teams tend to win coming off bye weeks. The winless Bills are really due for a win following their OT loss to the Ravens last week. So, in summary, my week 8 pick is the Jets.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
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Also, aren't most leagues over well ahead of week 17?
ReplyDeletePeter, the model already takes that into account. The week 17 games counts less than the weeks 8 through 16 games. This is inherent in the way the model attempts to optimize your projected # of survival weeks. Incidentally, right now we are expected to last through week 10. 50% of the time we'll last longer, 50% of the time we'll last less. Even so, the model still chose to use the Jets in week 17. However, the model does not know about the best teams' tendancy to rest their best players in the last week.
ReplyDeleteGod freaking damn it. After this 2nd year, time to delete this bookmark.
ReplyDeleteAlas, I am finished. If only I had listened to my model and gone with KC, then with 5 seconds left in OT, I would have advanced. At least I can say my model is still alive. Well, I think surviving through 7 weeks is decent. It's not good enough to win most leagues, but it's good. I say it's good b/c most weeks the favorite you pick really only has an 80% chance of winning. The probability of winning 7 weeks in a row with only an 80% chance of winning each week is only 21%. So 7 weeks exceeded expectations. Well, if you did not listen to me and are still alive I wish you good luck! I look forward to making another run at a perfect season next year.
ReplyDeleteSo what...are you done? Or will you continue to tell us who didn't listen to you what the model says?
ReplyDeleteI guess it's a wrap for me for 2010!
ReplyDelete