Week 6 is an easy decision for my model. We're going with the Steelers (ESPN's #1 power ranked team) is facing the lowly Browns at home. The only other option I'd even consider is the Giants to defeat the Lions at home. However, the spread between the Steelers and Browns is wider by 15 ranks. By the way, if I still had the Bears available, I would use them over the Giants (but not over the Steelers).
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
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I'm in two pools. Pool 1 is "normal". My picks, so far, have been: CHI, GB, NE, SD, IND. I am going to take PIT in this one.
ReplyDeleteThe other pool started with 950 people (287 remaining), and has a rule that if there are still more than 100 people alive in week11, you have to make two picks. Similarly in Week12 and 13, if there are more than 50 and 30 left, respectively.
My picks in that pool have been: NYG, GB, NE, ATL, IND. I am deciding between CHI and PIT for this week. PIT is a good pick in week11 (when I might need two picks...
Any thoughts?
Adam B,
ReplyDeletefirst, I would recommend PIT for you in this case as well. PIT is almost 10% more likely to win this week than CHI (90% vs 80%). That's way too big of a difference to consider not using them and saving them for later. My model only tells me to not use the best choice in a given week if the 2nd or 3rd best choice isn't far behind. But in this week, there is really only one excellent option, so once again I say stick with the Steelers