NFL survivor elimination pool debate - Part 1

Let's look 15 weeks into the future and imagine that you have survived the first 16 weeks of the NFL season and are contemplating your week 17 pick. Also imagine that along with you, 4 other competitors from your original pool of 100 competitors have survived and that the 5 of you have the same set of 16 teams available to choose from for week 17. Using the Las Vegas moneylines, you determine each of these 16 teams' percent chance of winning in week 17. One of the available 16 teams (Team A) has an 80% chance of winning, one team (team B) has a 70% chance of winning, and the 14 other teams are all extreme underdogs with less than 20% chance of winning. Which team should you pick, team A, team B, or one of the 14 underdogs? Let's assume that:

1. $100 will be awarded to the person who survives the most weeks
2. If there is a tie, the prize will be split amongst those in the tie
3. All 4 of your competitors will be picking team A

To be continued in the next post.

Thanks to Bill D. for asking me a question that was the inspiration for this post.