Thanks to comments and emails from several of you, we have 3 entries still alive and in need of a week 3 pick and strategy for all the remaining weeks. Here is a summary of our 3 entries:
| Entry Name | Week 1 Winner | Week 2 Winner |
| Tony/Cody | Baltimore | Washington |
| Johnny | Indianapolis | Washington |
| Ryan | Green Bay | Washington |
In week 3, I recommend that the Johnny and Ryan entries go with Baltimore for their winner. Following a win on the road at San Diego, the Ravens are now power ranked #1 and facing the 0-2 Cleveland Browns in week 3 who are ranked #29. The Browns are the second worst team the Ravens will face between weeks 3 and 17. The worst is during week 14 when the Detroit Lions (rank #31) play Baltimore in Baltimore. Although my model predicts that that week 14 game will be even more of a blowout than this week 3 affair, the week 14 matchup is down-weighted for being so far into the future, and the model says to use Baltimore now in week 3.
With Baltimore not available, the Tony Cody entry has a tougher decision in week 3. For week 3 for this entry the model is going with the Philadelphia Eagles (rank #9) who host the Kansas City Chiefs (rank #30). The Eagles did just get blownout at home in week 2. However, if you're going to win your pool, you can't use one of the very best (top-5) teams every single week, and you're going to have to use the 9th best team at some point. In the case of the Eagles, the KC Cheifs are the worst team remaining on their entire schedule and the Eagles remain at home in week 3. If you wanted to avoid the Eagles, the only other predicted blowout winner you could consider using is the NY Giants who are on the road at Tampa Bay. However, I would definitely recommend saving the Giants until week 5 when they host the lowly (even worse than the Tampa Bay Bucs) Oakland Raiders at the Meadowlands. Also, you really need to save the New York Giants for week 5, because my model is telling me that their really aren't any other good options in week 5. Eagles stock may be low heading into week 3, but to give yourself the best chance at winning your entire pool I'd go with the Eagles in week 3.
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Yes. I think that Baltimore is the best pick also. There were not many to consider because of all of the tough matchups. I just hope this is not one of those "let down" games. That was an emotional victory for them at San Diego. Hopefully Ray Lewis can lead them to victory again this week.
ReplyDeleteWhere do the Jets fall this week in your model playing at home against the Titans?
ReplyDeleteI would almost think it would be better to take the NYG on the road against TB and take PHI against TB in week 5. Yes..NYG maybe on the road...but McNabb and Westbrooks are both hurt. Your thoughts?
ReplyDeleteTony,
ReplyDelete1st, about the Jets: my season optimize (which weights the upcoming weeks way more than future weeks) is telling me that the Jets need to be saved for week 10 or 12 when the Jets (power ranked 8th) host Jacksonville (power rank 27) and Carolina (power rank 25). Picking them this week against the Titans (power ranked 16th) is just a much closer differential than those weeks. Believe, your pool (assuming it has more than ~15) players in it, will last that long, so you have to think long term
2nd, about the Eagles. I know the Eagles are without McNabb and Westbrook is injured. But they are still ranked #9. If you want to win your pool, you're going to have to use them eventually, and there is no better time to use them then this coming week. I would strongly recommend saving the Giants for week 5 when they host Oakland. For weeks 2 and 5, I am recommending using Philly over KC and NYG over Oakland. You are considering. NYG on road over TB and Eagles at home to TB. TB is way better than KC and Oakland, the first set of picks for weeks 2 and 5 is far superior. Good luck!
So why is nobody picking Dallas this week?!? After Baltimore they have the largest spread and the best moneyline.
ReplyDeleteBesides, as sucko as the Browns are that is still a division game which IMHO has a much better chance for an upset.
My model does not currently use Dallas any of the 17 weeks (Dallas is currently power ranked 15th and has a fairly tough schedule). So, the model is not saving Dallas for any games in weeks 4 through 17. So if you prefer Dallas this week over the other recommended picks, then go for it without feat that you are messing up your options for future weeks. Good luck.
ReplyDeleteI am also looking for non-Bal picks. I had Dallas originally but switched to the Bears over Seattle (on the road but hopefully not facing M. Hasselbeck). I'm just worried about the Eagles I guess.
ReplyDeleteGreat blog!
ReplyDeleteI picked Seattle week 1 and Washington week 2. I'm looking at Eagles or Browns for week 3. Does your spreadsheet place the Cardinals anywhere for a good week to use them?
Thanks,
Melissa
Great Blog! I picked the Seahawks week 1 and the Redskin's week 2. i was wondering if you had any idea of when to pick the Cardinals and the Saints. I'm interested in reading more.
ReplyDeleteMelissa
Melissa,
ReplyDeleteMy 17 week plan does not currently incorporate Arizona anywhere. Going into week 3, Arizona was ranked #18. They come the closest to being used in week 16 when they host St. Louis (rank #32). However, there are other options that look even better that week such as San Francisco (rank #13) hosting the Lions (rank #31). So for now I'm thinking we won't have to ever use the Cardinals, but let's see what the model says once it's updated with the new power rankings on tuesday
Looks like the Baltimore pick was definately the right one to go with. My question, should I pick the Bengals against the Browns, saving some better teams for upcoming weeks, or pick the NYG against the Bucs? Which seems to be as much of a no-brainer as Baltimore in week 3.
ReplyDeleteWent with the Eagles as you said as survived to week 4. Nice pick. Let me know what the model says for week 4.
ReplyDeleteWhoops...I mean NYG against the KC Chiefs.
ReplyDelete