| Entry Name | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 Recommendation |
| Tony/Cody | BAL | WAS | PHI | SF |
| Johnny | IND | WAS | BAL | SF |
| Ryan | GB | WAS | BAL | SF |
| Anonymous | NO | WAS | BAL | SF |
My week 4 recommendation for everyone is to use San Franciso this week (They are playing at home against St. Louis. SF, according to the updated team scoring system posted yesterday, is the 17th best team and St. Louis is the 31st. The SF 49ers only other predicted blowout on the schedule is in week 16 when they host the Detroit Lions. But Detroit (despite recently losing about 20 games in a row over 3 calendar years) is actually a much better team right now than St. Louis, so there is no better week to use SF than right now in week 4.
Many of you will be wondering about the other options this week: Chicago (at home against Detroit), Indianapolis (at home against Seattle), and NY Giants (on road against KC) are all good options as well. However, using the updated team valuations from yesterday's post. The difference in scores between SF and St. Louis (after taking home field advanatage into account) is larger than the disparity in any of the other games mentioned.
If you are considering going with either the Giants, Bears, or Colts instead of the SF 49ers, here are some more things to consider:
I would save NY Giants for week 5 when they are home against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders are almost just as bad as KC, so better to wait for week 5 to use the Giants when they are at home instead of this week on the road.
The model is saying to save the Bears for week 8 when they host the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are the worst team in the NFL by far. So the Bears are more likely to win in week 8 than this week against the Lions.
The model is saying to save the Colts (4th best team) for week 7 when they are on the road aginst St. Louis (31st best team). In week 7, they will be even more likely to win than they are this week against the Seahawks (18th best team).
Questions/Comments?
Posts
I agree; You pretty much laid it out there for weeks 4, 5, 7 and 8, but now what about 6! that is the question lol
ReplyDelete- Ray
Week 6 is looking like Pittsburgh to win at home against the Browns. By the way, these are the models best guesses at what the week's 5, 6, 7, 8 etc. picks will be, but we need to wait until Tuesday morning to update the model with the latest statistics from week 4 so that the model can more accurately re-make the picks for every remaining game.
ReplyDeleteAre there any other decent options next week (W5) if we use the Giants this week?
ReplyDeleteThe Cincy/Cle game isn't a blowout game this week?
ReplyDeleteSo I'm thinking about your 49er pick.. They've played well so far, so that is why they have a relatively high ranking, but that doesn't seem quite "solid" enough for me. One thing you could do would be to look at the variation in ranking for the 49ers (either how its varied over the year, how it varies between ESPN analysts, or how it varies between hard statistics like yards/game and ESPN ranking), and then build confidence intervals. For instance, I might rather take a difference of 10 with a 95% confidence interval of [8,12] than a difference of 12 with a confidence interval of [4,20].. Ya know?
ReplyDeleteWow, I did not even consider using the 49ers. But now that you explained the best time to use the NYG, I will have to re-evaluate my decision.
ReplyDeleteI think Pittsburgh at home vs. the Browns makes sense no matter what happens in Week 4 and 5 LOL.....well except if maybe half of the Steelers get injured between now and then
ReplyDelete-Ray
You say to save the Colts for week 7. I have already used them week 1. I realize things will change between now and then, but out of curiousity, who do you suggest I use in week 7?
ReplyDeleteTony,
ReplyDeleteYou asked about the Cincy/Cle game. If there was no advantage for home field, than this would be the 2nd largest projected blowout of the upcoming week. However, after adjusting for home field advantage, it's only about the 6th biggest disparity on the schedule. Furthermore, why pick the Bengals now on the road against the Browns, when they play the Browns at home later on. In weeks 12, 13, and 16, the Bengals host the Browns, Lions, and KC Chiefs. If you want to give yourself the best shot at winning your pool, you're best bet is to save the Bengals for one of those better options later in the season.
John,
ReplyDeleteIn week 7, my model is telling me that you (and only you, this doesn't apply to anyone with the Colts still available) should go with New England on the road at Tampa Bay. However, stay tuned in week 7, b/c a lot could change by the time week 7 actually arrives, and by that point the model might have a different idea of what your best pick is.
Any thoughts on HOU for week 3?
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts on HOU for week 4?
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the team rankings from a couple posts ago, both Houston and Oakland are 2 of the worst teams. We can usually avoid picking a bad team to beat an even worse team b/c there are plenty of games on the schedule throughout the 17 weeks where a bad/horrible team is on the road against one of the best teams. My current 17 week plan does not use Houston as a winner for any of the weeks.
ReplyDeleteIs the pick for SF factoring in Gore being out tomorrow?
ReplyDelete