NFL survivor pool - week 8 and 9 strategy

I'm heading to Hawaii tomorrow for ~2 weeks, and I'm not bringing my computer, so I'm going to discuss weeks 8 and 9 now.

In week 8 I think you should go with San Diego (vs. Oakland) or Chicago (vs. Cleveland). Both of these teams are huge favorites this week and neither team has any games remaining on their schedules worth saving them for.

In week 9, Indianapolis and New Orleans have the biggest projected blowouts on the schedule. However, the next few options are good as well and New Orleans and Indianapolis both need to be saved for future weeks when they will be the only good options. So, in week 9 I'd go with San Francisco or New England who will be playing their easiest game left on their 2009 schedules.

So, pretty simple stuff, right? I'll see you for week 10!

2009 NFL Survivor Elimination Pool - Week 7 Pick Strategy

1. Please decide if you think your pool will last beyond week 12. If so, please read on in this paragraph, if not please skip to the next paragraph (This is important, b/c if your pool is going to last past 12 you will need to save the Pats and Colts for those weeks). If you're pool has more than 20 left, you should definitely be reading this paragraph. Your best option in week 7 is to use the Giants. If you've already used the Giants (which most of you have), then use Green Bay this week. If you've already used Green Bay, then you're next best option is New Orleans.

2. If your pool has less than 10 people left, you should definitely be reading this paragraph. Your best choice this week is the Colts, followed the Patriots. Warning, you will have no good choices if you survive to week 13.

NFL 2009 Survivor Pool - Updated Week 7 Team Rankings

Lot of shifts in the updated team valuation. Week 7 pick recommendations coming soon. Here are updated results:

Team	Yards/Game Differential	Points/Game Differential	ESPN Power Rank	Yard Index	Points Index	Power Rank Index	Final Score
NO	128.8	19.8	2	95.0	100.0	96.8	97.3
IND	109.2	13.2	1	88.7	83.1	100.0	90.6
NYG	144.3	9.9	5	100.0	74.6	87.1	87.2
DEN	106.2	11.2	4	87.8	77.9	90.3	85.4
NE	111.4	12.0	6	89.4	80.0	83.9	84.4
PIT	128.5	4.6	8	94.9	61.0	77.4	77.8
MIN	6.4	11.3	3	55.8	78.2	93.5	75.8
PHI	68.8	7.4	12	75.8	68.2	64.5	69.5
BAL	60.5	6.5	11	73.1	65.9	67.7	68.9
GB	61.6	7.4	13	73.5	68.2	61.3	67.7
ATL	-31.4	9.2	7	43.6	72.8	80.6	65.7
CHI	12.6	4.0	10	57.8	59.5	71.0	62.7
DAL	62.6	4.8	19	73.8	61.5	41.9	59.1
CIN	-22.9	0.0	9	46.4	49.2	74.2	56.6
ARI	13.0	4.0	16	57.9	59.5	51.6	56.3
HOU	17.7	1.0	17	59.4	51.8	48.4	53.2
NYJ	15.4	1.7	18	58.7	53.6	45.2	52.5
MIA	38.6	1.2	20	66.1	52.3	38.7	52.4
SD	-16.6	-2.4	14	48.4	43.1	58.1	49.8
SF	-55.6	2.8	15	35.9	56.4	54.8	49.0
SEA	-9.5	1.5	23	50.7	53.1	29.0	44.3
JAC	-5.5	-4.5	21	52.0	37.7	35.5	41.7
WAS	7.0	-2.8	27	56.0	42.1	16.1	38.0
CAR	-16.0	-8.0	22	48.6	28.7	32.3	36.5
BUF	-61.3	-6.0	24	34.1	33.8	25.8	31.2
DET	-77.6	-14.1	26	28.8	13.1	19.4	20.4
KC	-120.1	-7.7	28	15.2	29.5	12.9	19.2
OAK	-151.7	-12.9	25	5.1	16.2	22.6	14.6
TB	-92.5	-13.2	31	24.1	15.4	3.2	14.2
TEN	-94.9	-19.0	30	23.3	0.5	6.5	10.1
CLE	-167.5	-13.2	29	0.0	15.4	9.7	8.4
STL	-106.7	-19.2	32	19.5	0.0	0.0	6.5

2009 NFL Survivor Elimination Pool - Week 6 Pick Strategy

Well, the worst team (Oakland) isn’t playing on the road against the best team (New York Giants) this week, so your week 6 pick will be a little more interesting than week 5. After looking at all of the match-ups on the week 6 schedule, and computing the team score differential (after taking home field advantage into account), here are the projected blowouts:

1. JACKSONVILLE vs. St. Louis – St. Louis is the worst team that Jacksonville still gets to play at home this season. So, if your 2009 survivor pool pick set is going to include Jacksonville (and hasn’t already) this is the best week to use them. However, Jacksonville (23rd best team score) is one of the bad teams and their team score differential compared with St. Louis isn’t large enough to warrant consideration as a week 6 pick.

2. WASHINGTON vs. Kansas City – Washington’s situation in week 6 is similar to Jacksonville’s in that Kansas City is the worst team Washington still gets to play at home this season. And, as was the case with Jacksonville, Washington isn’t a good enough team to ensure a victory even playing at home against the worst teams. So, don’t look for Washington or Jacksonville to get any more mentions in future week’s recommended pick post.

3. CINCINNATI vs Houston - Cincinnati is good (4-1 record, 9th best team score) and Houston is bad (21st best team score), but later this season Cincinnati still gets to play Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City (in weeks 12, 13, and 16), all at home, and all three of those teams are worse than Houston. So week 6 is not the time to use Cincinnati.

4. Philadelphia vs. OAKLAND – (Skip this paragraph if you’ve used Philly already) Philadelphia is the only road team under consideration this week. Looking through Philly’s remaining 2009 schedule, their only other “easy” win on the schedule might be Washington at home in week 12. But, also in week 12, Atlanta has Tampa Bay at home and Dallas has Oakland at home. So if you don’t pick Philly this week, you might not ever use them (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing).

5. NEW ENGLAND vs. TENNESSEE. Besides this game, New England has two other “easy” wins remaining on their 2009 schedule: Carolina at home in week 14 and Jacksonville at home in week 16. However, in the latest team rankings, Tennessee is worst than Jacksonville and Carolina (hard to believe a 13-0 team from 2008 has fallen so far!). Assuming you have already picked Baltimore, my model is telling me to save New England for week 14. If you still have Baltimore available, then you might not ever need New England.

6. NEW YORK JETS vs. Buffalo. The Jets have a predicted win coming up this week. However, their match-up does not have the largest disparity. That seems to be a pattern with the Jets. Looking through their remaining schedule, they also have Carolina and Jacksonville at home, however, there always seem to be even bigger blowouts to choose from those weeks. It doesn’t look like the Jets are making it into the model at all this week.

7. GREEN BAY vs. Detroit – Detroit is the worst team that Green Bay still gets to play at home this season. So, if your 2009 survivor pool pick set is going to include Green Bay and hasn’t already, this is the best week to use them. But I think there are better match-ups this week.

8. PITTSBURGH vs. Cleveland – I saved my recommended pick for last. This isn’t actually Pittsburgh easiest game remaining on the 2009 schedule. They also get Oakland at home in week 13 and Oakland (ranked dead last) is even worse than Cleveland (ranked 5th to last). However, also in week 13 the Colts have the Titans at home, which is an even wider disparity game than Pittsburgh and Oakland. So my model tells me that this is the time to use Pittsburgh, even though it’s not their easiest game remaining. This match-up is a wider disparity than the first 7 mentioned, even though it isn’t Pittsburgh’s widest disparity on their remaining schedule. If you’ve already used Pittsburgh, the model says Philadelphia is the next best option.

NFL 2009 Survivor Pool - Updated Week 6 Team Rankings

After 5 weeks of football, here are the updated team valuations. Stay tuned for the week 6 pick in the next day or two.

Team	Yards/Game Differential	Points/Game Differential	ESPN Power Rank	Yard Index	Points Index	Power Rank Index	Final Score
NYG	206.8	16.0	2	100.0	91.6	96.8	96.1
NO	119.0	19.5	4	77.9	100.0	90.3	89.4
IND	109.2	13.2	1	75.4	85.0	100.0	86.8
DEN	124.0	11.2	5	79.2	80.2	87.1	82.1
PHI	96.5	10.3	7	72.2	78.0	80.6	77.0
MIN	12.0	13.2	3	51.0	85.0	93.5	76.5
BAL	68.2	8.2	11	65.1	73.0	67.7	68.6
ATL	-9.3	9.7	8	45.6	76.6	77.4	66.5
CIN	7.8	2.2	6	49.9	58.7	83.9	64.2
PIT	85.0	3.0	13	69.3	60.6	61.3	63.7
NE	47.0	2.6	10	59.8	59.7	71.0	63.5
NYJ	-5.2	2.6	9	46.6	59.7	74.2	60.2
CHI	-14.2	6.8	12	44.4	69.7	64.5	59.5
DAL	62.6	4.8	17	63.7	64.9	48.4	59.0
GB	5.5	2.7	14	49.3	59.9	58.1	55.8
SEA	31.8	6.6	20	55.9	69.2	38.7	54.6
MIA	38.6	1.2	18	57.7	56.3	45.2	53.0
SF	-55.6	2.8	15	33.9	60.1	54.8	49.6
SD	-16.5	-0.2	16	43.8	53.0	51.6	49.5
ARI	-37.7	-1.0	19	38.4	51.1	41.9	43.8
HOU	-14.0	-1.0	22	44.4	51.1	32.3	42.6
WAS	9.0	-1.8	24	50.2	49.2	25.8	41.7
JAC	-52.6	-6.0	21	34.7	39.1	35.5	36.4
BUF	-50.0	-7.8	25	35.3	34.8	22.6	30.9
CAR	-39.3	-11.7	23	38.0	25.5	29.0	30.9
TEN	-27.2	-11.0	27	41.1	27.2	16.1	28.1
DET	-36.0	-11.8	26	38.9	25.3	19.4	27.8
CLE	-131.8	-13.2	28	14.8	22.0	12.9	16.5
TB	-95.6	-14.4	31	23.9	19.1	3.2	15.4
KC	-144.8	-10.8	30	11.5	27.7	6.5	15.2
STL	-82.0	-22.4	32	27.3	0.0	0.0	9.1
OAK	-190.4	-16.2	29	0.0	14.8	9.7	8.2

2009 NFL Survivor Elimination Pool - Week 5 Pick Strategy

Let's review all of the projected blowouts and large point spread games of week 5 and see which ones might make for a good week 5 pick.

1. Cincinatti @ Baltimore - Baltimore is a 9 point favorite. However, see the team scores below. Baltimore is one of the best teams at 82 points and Cincinatti is above average with 54 points. If you didn't use Baltimore in week 3 when they hosted Cleveland, I would recommend saving them for week 14 when they host Detroit, and you will see as you read on that there are better blowouts to choose from this week.

2. Pittsburgh @ Detroit - Pittsburgh is a 10.5 point favorite. Pittsburgh is scored a 64 below and Detroit is 23. However, you should save Pittsburgh for next week (week 6) or week 13 when they host Cleveland and then Oakland as these two teams are even worse than Detroit, and Pittsburgh gets to play them at home, and you will see there are even better options mentioned below.

3. Minnesota @ St. Louis - Minnesota is a 9.5 point favorite. St. Louis is currently the worst team, but why pick Minnesota on the road in week 5 when you can pick them at home in week 10 against Detroit?

4. Dallas @ KC - Dallas is a 9 point favorite. KC is quite bad, but once again we see that later in the season Dallas has a matchup at home against an equally bad team, Oakland, in week 12.

And now for the best two options of the week:

5. If you have the NY Giants available, this is the perfect week to use them. They are hosting Oakland, which is the worst team they have left to face on their 2009 schedule. Unlike with the first 4 matchups discussed, there is no good reason to save this favorite.

6. If you've already used the NY Giants (or don't think Eli's foot will hold up this week), your next best alternative in week 5 is to use Philadelphia at home against Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is the worst team remaining on the Eagles' 2009 schedule, so just like with the Giants, there is no better week to use the Eagles than now in week 5.

The model prefers the Giants this week over the Eagles because Oakland and Tampa Bay are almost equally bad, but the Giants are the #1 team (see previous post) and the Eagles are (only) #6.

In the rare event you have already used NYG and Philly, the model is telling me that Minnesota is the best choice of those first 4 games mentioned.

NFL 2009 Survivor Pool - Updated Week 5 Team Rankings

Before posting week 5 pick recommendations I wanted to share the updated team rankings (which are an ever changing/evolving input into my Excel survivor pool pick optimizer). As you know from the earlier post, each team's score is based on their point per game differential, yards gained minus yards allowed per game, and ESPN power rank. The table below has all of these things plus each team's final score in the rightmost column. The teams are listed from best to worst.

Team	Yard Differential	Point Differential	ESPN Power Rank	Yard Index	Points Index	Power Rank Index	Final Score
NYG	168.7	10.8	2	100.0	78.5	96.8	91.8
NO	119.0	19.5	4	84.3	100.0	90.3	91.5
IND	106.0	11.0	1	80.2	79.0	100.0	86.4
DEN	125.2	13.3	8	86.3	84.7	77.4	82.8
BAL	121.7	11.0	7	85.2	79.0	80.6	81.6
PHI	121.3	7.3	10	85.0	69.9	71.0	75.3
MIN	20.7	9.5	3	53.3	75.3	93.5	74.1
NE	88.5	4.0	6	74.7	61.7	83.9	73.4
NYJ	19.5	4.2	5	52.9	62.2	87.1	67.4
PIT	104.0	1.8	15	79.6	56.3	54.8	63.6
SF	-20.0	12.2	12	40.5	82.0	64.5	62.3
CHI	-14.2	6.8	14	42.3	68.6	58.1	56.3
GB	5.5	2.7	13	48.5	58.5	61.3	56.1
DAL	29.7	4.5	17	56.2	63.0	48.4	55.8
CIN	-26.8	2.0	11	38.3	56.8	67.7	54.3
ATL	-78.3	1.3	9	22.1	55.1	74.2	50.4
SD	-16.5	-0.2	16	41.6	51.4	51.6	48.2
JAC	-20.7	2.8	18	40.3	58.8	45.2	48.1
MIA	22.3	0.5	21	53.8	53.1	35.5	47.5
WAS	23.8	-1.5	22	54.3	48.1	32.3	44.9
HOU	-36.5	0.5	20	35.3	53.1	38.7	42.4
ARI	-25.0	-3.7	19	38.9	42.7	41.9	41.2
SEA	-5.3	-2.0	24	45.1	46.9	25.8	39.3
TEN	-3.5	-8.2	25	45.7	31.6	22.6	33.3
BUF	-86.2	-9.0	23	19.6	29.6	29.0	26.1
DET	-42.7	-12.7	27	33.3	20.5	16.1	23.3
CAR	-69.0	-16.7	26	25.0	10.6	19.4	18.3
OAK	-148.3	-11.0	28	0.0	24.7	12.9	12.5
KC	-132.5	-12.0	30	5.0	22.2	6.5	11.2
TB	-114.0	-13.3	31	10.8	19.0	3.2	11.0
CLE	-141.0	-17.2	29	2.3	9.4	9.7	7.1
STL	-108.2	-21.0	32	12.6	0.0	0.0	4.2