Week 4 has a few projected blowouts on the schedule: Panthers @ Saints, Lions @ Packers, and to a slightly lesser degree 49ers @ Falcons. I've already used the Packers, so that leaves me with the Saints or Falcons. According to me, this is the Falcons easiest game until week 17 when they get the Panthers at home. But, as I've discussed before, I downweight future weeks, (b/c your pool might not last until week 17), so you can say this is the best time to use the Falcons (if you're ever going to use them).
The Saints on the other hand, have projected blowouts at home in weeks 7, 11, 14, and 17 versus the Browns, Seahawks, Rams, and Bucs respectively. My model is telling me to save the Saints for week 14 against the Rams because that is the only projected blowout on the schedule that week.
So, my model is saying to go for the Falcons in week 4, and that's what I'm going to do (here's hoping for an 0-4 49ers team). If you have very few people in your pool, and are fairly certain that it will not last until week 14, then go for the Saints.
Also, if you had rebuys in weeks 1 and/or 2 and used bad teams as winners (and still have the packers and bears available), then that changes everything as well...
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
NFL Survivor/Elimination Pool - Week 4 Pick
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What's your take on the Chargers? They're favored slightly higher than Atlanta (-8.5 instead of -7).
ReplyDeleteI assume the Packers would be your pick if you still had them (as we discussed back in week 2)?
ReplyDeleteI'm curious about what your model is saying about week 7, at this point?
ReplyDeleteAnd, if it's BAL, then what about week 9?
ReplyDeleteDan, yes Packers would be my choice if you have them available.
ReplyDeleteAdam, right now I like Ravens as you mentioned in week 7 and vikings in week 9. However, that is all subject to change, b/c I rerun the model every week with updated team rankings. But, if I had to make all my picks for the rest of the year now, that would be it.
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