Looking at the week 2 schedule, Green Bay is the obvious choice, hosting the lowly bills at home. This is one of 2 extremely lopsided matchups for Green Bay this year, they also get to host Detroit in week 4. However, since there aren't any other matchups anywhere near as lopsided this week, this is the ideal time to use Green Bay and there is no need to save them for week 4 (as the Panthers have to visit the Saints in New Orleans in week 4).
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
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Thanks. My pool allows buy backs in the first 2 weeks. Would that change your pick?
ReplyDeleteIf rebuys are allowed I would recommend picking Carolina (one of the worst teams) who is hosting an even worse tampa bay team. If rebuys are allowed you don't want to use one of the better teams
ReplyDeleteI'm a little leery of using the Saints in week 4 since I think they are also the best pick and may be needed in Weeks 7, 11, 14 and 17 when they host Cle, Sea, Stl and TB.
ReplyDeleteWhich means saving the Packers for Week 4, so right now I have ATL over ARI.
Not to mention 60% of users on Yahoo have the Packers so at least there's a good upset for me to root for! :-D
Do you have an opinion on who to use with leagues with more than one strike? or do you think sticking with GB is the right thing to do? Thanks.
ReplyDeleteDan, you are correct that the Saints have some week oppponents late in the season. However, my model has a decay factor which makes games count less in future weeks. The decay factor is there b/c, after all, your pool might not even last to those weeks. If you knew your pool was going to last all 17 weeks, then you would want to wait to use the Saints in week 7 when they host the worst team in football, the browns. This is definitely the best time to pick the packers. Although I think leagues with rebuys in weeks 1 and/or 2 have a different strategy, I'd approch a multiple strikes league the same as an only 1 strike league
ReplyDeleteLooks like we can all be happy as the Packers and Falcons both won (convincingly). Well... everyone except the saps (like my wife) who picked the Cowboys :)
ReplyDeleteBy the same kind of logic as Week2, it looks like the Week3 pick should be New England. New England has a pretty tough schedule the rest of the way, and this home game against Buffalo is probably the best time to use them.
ReplyDeleteThe only other times to use them are all away games (except for the always dangerous Week17). Week9 @CLE, Week12 @DET, Week16 @BUF. All of these games have other, better choices available.
Can't wait to see what what our host says...