NFL Week 8 Elimination Pool Pick

Ok, the model says to go with the Chiefs at home against the Bills this week. However, I am personally not going to listen to my model this week and I'm going with the Jets instead. My model was going to save the Jets for week 17. But with the best teams resting players in week 17, I don't think it's worth saving one of the few best teams till then. Also, the Jets are coming off a bye week and the best teams tend to win coming off bye weeks. The winless Bills are really due for a win following their OT loss to the Ravens last week. So, in summary, my week 8 pick is the Jets.

NFL Elimination Pool - Week 7 Pick

6 Weeks down and 11 to go! As a reminder, I have already used (team's ESPN power ranking shown in parantheses):

Week 1 - Bears (12)
Week 2 - Packers (15)
Week 3 - Patriots (3)
Week 4 - Falcons (7)
Week 5 - Colts (5)
Week 6 - Steelers (1)

So I still have some good team's left (Notably Jets, Ravens, and Saints). This week there are two potential blowouts on the schedule for me to choose from: Bills at Ravens is the worst team playing the 4th best team and Browns and Saints is the 3rd worst at the 6th best team. The Saints I want to save for week 11 when they have the largest projected blowout on the calendar of the teams I still have available. So, I'm going with the Ravens this week as this is their easiest game left on the 2010 schedule and no other future weeks when they would present the best choice as well.

NFL Elimination Pool - Week 6 Pick

Week 6 is an easy decision for my model. We're going with the Steelers (ESPN's #1 power ranked team) is facing the lowly Browns at home. The only other option I'd even consider is the Giants to defeat the Lions at home. However, the spread between the Steelers and Browns is wider by 15 ranks. By the way, if I still had the Bears available, I would use them over the Giants (but not over the Steelers).

2010 NFL Elimination Pool - Week 5 pick

4 correct picks down, only 13 to go! In week 5 I'm going with the Colts to defeat the undefeated Chiefs this week. The Colts have the largest projected margin of victory of all favorites across all Las Vegas lines this week. I also considered the Ravens to defeat the Broncos at home this week, but I want to save the Ravens for week 7 when they have the Bills at home, and the Bills are even worse than the Broncos. Plus, as I mentioned earlier, according to the Vegas moneylines, the Colts are more likely to win than the Ravens this week.

NFL Survivor/Elimination Pool - Week 4 Pick

Week 4 has a few projected blowouts on the schedule: Panthers @ Saints, Lions @ Packers, and to a slightly lesser degree 49ers @ Falcons. I've already used the Packers, so that leaves me with the Saints or Falcons. According to me, this is the Falcons easiest game until week 17 when they get the Panthers at home. But, as I've discussed before, I downweight future weeks, (b/c your pool might not last until week 17), so you can say this is the best time to use the Falcons (if you're ever going to use them).

The Saints on the other hand, have projected blowouts at home in weeks 7, 11, 14, and 17 versus the Browns, Seahawks, Rams, and Bucs respectively. My model is telling me to save the Saints for week 14 against the Rams because that is the only projected blowout on the schedule that week.

So, my model is saying to go for the Falcons in week 4, and that's what I'm going to do (here's hoping for an 0-4 49ers team). If you have very few people in your pool, and are fairly certain that it will not last until week 14, then go for the Saints.

Also, if you had rebuys in weeks 1 and/or 2 and used bad teams as winners (and still have the packers and bears available), then that changes everything as well...

NFL Survivior Pool - Week 3 Pick

Lots of projected blowouts on the calendar in week 3 including Bills @ Patriots, Browns @ Ravens, and Lions @ Vikings. My model is telling me to go with the Patriots, saving the ravens for week 12 at home against the Bucs, and currently planning to never use the 0-2 Vikings.

NFL Survivor Pool - Week 2 Pick

Looking at the week 2 schedule, Green Bay is the obvious choice, hosting the lowly bills at home. This is one of 2 extremely lopsided matchups for Green Bay this year, they also get to host Detroit in week 4. However, since there aren't any other matchups anywhere near as lopsided this week, this is the ideal time to use Green Bay and there is no need to save them for week 4 (as the Panthers have to visit the Saints in New Orleans in week 4).