Welcome back for another exciting start to the NFL season. And with that everyone is alive in their elimination / survivor / suicide pools. Let's cut right to the chase with a week 1 pick. I loaded ESPN's preseason power rankings into my season optimizer to see what it recommended for week 1. It's telling me to pick the Bears for 2 very good reasons. #1 The bears are at home and playing their easiest opponent of the entire season. #2 This game has the widest power ranking disparity of any game on the schedule in week 1 (after giving the home teams a boost for home field advantage). Any questions?
P.S. Is anyone else out there in a pool where you have to pick a different losing team each week? I am, and have a model for that as well...
P.P.S. Is anyone out there in a week with 2 or 3 strikes allowed? In some cases, that can change who you should pick! let me know...
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
2010 NFL Survivor/Elimation/Suicide Pool - Week 1
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Oh, mighty consultant, I am back again this season for your wisdom. Last season, I followed your advice (mostly) and was able to navigate throught the NFL Survival league unscathed. I am in four leagues this season. One of them is a three strikes league. You mentioned that this could change who I should use. I was thinking of using Miami. But I will follow your advice and pick Chicago in my other 3 leagues. Who should I use in the 3 strikes league?
ReplyDeleteWho are your other picks? I'm a little nervous about the Bears / Lions and am considering the Giants.
ReplyDeleteI am in a pool that allows a person to buy back into the pool if he is eliminated in weeks 1 or 2. Would that change your pick for week 1? Also, like Anonymous, I too am nervous about the Bears/Lions.
ReplyDeleteI have a pool that allows 3 strikes. Winner at the end usually only has 1 strike. Would you still recommend da Bears this week?
ReplyDeleteI'm not recommending anything other than the Bears for those in leagues without rebuys or multiple strikes. The model is an objective model and for reasons #1 and #2 listed above, there's no reason to look beyond the bears this week.
ReplyDeleteHowever, if you have a league with rebuys allowed, you might want to consider picking a winner that is a worse team than the Bears. Looking through the schedule, I'd say your best best it to pick the Bucs to defeat the browns at home. The bucs are a favorite this week, but you would have never used them otherwise, thus saving all of the good teams for when re-buys are not allowed in future weeks.
If the league is based on multiple strikes allowed and not on rebuys in the first and/or 2nd week, than I think you want to approach it the same as if there was only one strike allowed (i.e. pick the bears). Your thoughts?
Boy Chicago got lucky with that blown call. But hey, sometimes lucky is better than good, right? Looking forward to who you have in mind for next week.
ReplyDeleteYep, looking forward to next week. Green Bay is obvious pick, probably by over half the participants of these pools. Wondering what the expected value will be.
ReplyDelete