NFL Survivor/Elimination Pool - Week 4 Pick

Week 4 has a few projected blowouts on the schedule: Panthers @ Saints, Lions @ Packers, and to a slightly lesser degree 49ers @ Falcons. I've already used the Packers, so that leaves me with the Saints or Falcons. According to me, this is the Falcons easiest game until week 17 when they get the Panthers at home. But, as I've discussed before, I downweight future weeks, (b/c your pool might not last until week 17), so you can say this is the best time to use the Falcons (if you're ever going to use them).

The Saints on the other hand, have projected blowouts at home in weeks 7, 11, 14, and 17 versus the Browns, Seahawks, Rams, and Bucs respectively. My model is telling me to save the Saints for week 14 against the Rams because that is the only projected blowout on the schedule that week.

So, my model is saying to go for the Falcons in week 4, and that's what I'm going to do (here's hoping for an 0-4 49ers team). If you have very few people in your pool, and are fairly certain that it will not last until week 14, then go for the Saints.

Also, if you had rebuys in weeks 1 and/or 2 and used bad teams as winners (and still have the packers and bears available), then that changes everything as well...

NFL Survivior Pool - Week 3 Pick

Lots of projected blowouts on the calendar in week 3 including Bills @ Patriots, Browns @ Ravens, and Lions @ Vikings. My model is telling me to go with the Patriots, saving the ravens for week 12 at home against the Bucs, and currently planning to never use the 0-2 Vikings.

NFL Survivor Pool - Week 2 Pick

Looking at the week 2 schedule, Green Bay is the obvious choice, hosting the lowly bills at home. This is one of 2 extremely lopsided matchups for Green Bay this year, they also get to host Detroit in week 4. However, since there aren't any other matchups anywhere near as lopsided this week, this is the ideal time to use Green Bay and there is no need to save them for week 4 (as the Panthers have to visit the Saints in New Orleans in week 4).

2010 NFL Survivor/Elimation/Suicide Pool - Week 1

Welcome back for another exciting start to the NFL season. And with that everyone is alive in their elimination / survivor / suicide pools. Let's cut right to the chase with a week 1 pick. I loaded ESPN's preseason power rankings into my season optimizer to see what it recommended for week 1. It's telling me to pick the Bears for 2 very good reasons. #1 The bears are at home and playing their easiest opponent of the entire season. #2 This game has the widest power ranking disparity of any game on the schedule in week 1 (after giving the home teams a boost for home field advantage). Any questions?

P.S. Is anyone else out there in a pool where you have to pick a different losing team each week? I am, and have a model for that as well...
P.P.S. Is anyone out there in a week with 2 or 3 strikes allowed? In some cases, that can change who you should pick! let me know...