Saturday, September 22, 2007

Categories and Correlations - Part 3

...Continuing from Categories and Correlations - Part 2 (Please read that post first)

There are 126 different groups of 5 categories. Each group of 5 is defined by the 10 relationships between its variables. For example, if we pick categories A,B,C,D, and E, then we need to look at the correlations: 1. A vs. B, 2. A vs. C, 3. A vs. D, 4. A vs. E, 5. B vs. C, 6. B vs. D, 7. B vs. E, 8. C vs. D, 9. C vs. E, and 10. D vs. E

The strength of how well 5 categories work together is defined as the average of these 10 correlations. I ranked the 126 possible groups of 5 categories on this average correlation. The average correlation of the 126 possible groups ranges from -.15 to .49. Any average below 0 means a player who's good at any one of the 5 categories is likely to be bad at the remaining 4. The group of 5 at the top of the list, the one with an average of .49 is quite special, b/c not only does it have the best average correlation (best by a large margin, #2 has an average of .41), but it is the only 1 in 126 where none of the 10 correlations between the 5 categories are negative. All 10 are nicely positive, the minimum of the 10 correlations is .27. The 5 best categories to go for are: FT%, 3 Pointers Made, Points, Assists, and Steals.

So that's it for categories and correlations. You now know which 5 categories around which to build a team.

4 comments:

  1. you are the man. i will base my h2h on your research.

    ReplyDelete
  2. can you do something for dumping 2 categories? going for 5 categories implies dumping 4, but you wont be guaranteed winning those 5 every week in h2h.

    ReplyDelete
  3. from a glance it looks like FG and TO. They have the least positive correlation with the other 8 categories....

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous, you can find more info on this topic in a complete research paper I presented at last year's MIT Sloan Sports Analytics conference. A link to the paper is here: http://www.sloansportsconference.com/research-papers/2010-2/past-years/novel-approach-to-fantasy-basketball-management/

    ReplyDelete

 

© 2010 Zach Samuels

links to this site are welcome, but copying and reposting of the contents of this page are not permitted without express written consent from the author.