Which pair of third basemen would you rather have on your fantasy team? Assume Al, Bob, Chase, and Dave are on 4 different MLB teams. Assume the stats listed below are what their stats will be this coming year.
| Name | Bats | R | RBI | SB | HR | AVG | VS LHP AVG | VS RHP AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al | Switch Hitter | 100 | 100 | 25 | 25 | 300 | 300 | 300 |
| Bob | Switch Hitter | 100 | 100 | 25 | 25 | 300 | 300 | 300 |
OR
| Name | Bats | R | RBI | SB | HR | AVG | VS LHP AVG | VS RHP AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase | Lefty | 100 | 100 | 25 | 25 | 290 | 215 | 315 |
| Dave | Lefty | 100 | 100 | 25 | 25 | 290 | 215 | 315 |
As you can see, Al, Bob, Chase, and David are nearly identical except with their batting averages. Al and Bob are switch hitters and are 300 hitters against lefties and righties. Chase and Dave are both lefties, and hit 315 againt righties, 215 against lefties, and 290 overall. Which pair of third basemen would you rather have on your fantasy team?
Posts
I probably depends on the overall structure of the league. Since the two in each pair are independent, I'd think taking the 300 hitters is better, given you have to play them each night. Also, it seems like on nights when they both face lefties, the double whammy effect would hurt you more than it would help you on nights when they both face righties.
ReplyDeleteQuick clarification, all 4 batters in question play third base. Your team only has 1 third basemen slot, so every day, you can only use 1 of them.
ReplyDeleteYou should pick the lefties, cause there are three scenarios:
ReplyDelete1) Both face lefties
- Prob: .25 * .25 = 6.25%
- Best Average: max(.215,.215)=.215
2) One lefty one righty
- Prob: 2 * (.75 * .25) = 37.5%
- Best Average: max(.315,.215) = .315
3) Two righties:
- Prob: .75 * .75 = 56.25
- Best Average: max(.315,.315) = .315
So the expected value of the best average is (.215*.0625) + (.315*.375) + (.315*.5625) = .309 > .300
Thus you should pick the pair of lefties!
Dave
I concur
ReplyDelete