2009 NFL Survivor Elimination Pool - Week 2 Pick Strategy

My week one pick Indianapolis defeated the jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, meaning I have advanced to week 2 of this year's 2009 NFL survivor pool. Here is my strategy for this week's pick:

My week 2 pick is the Green Bay Packers to defeat the Cincinnati Bengals (in Green Bay). A Green Bay victory is actually one of 5 projected blowouts on the NFL week 2 schedule. I also expect 3 other home teams (Atlanta over Carolina, Tennesee over Houston, and Washington over St. Louis) and one road team (Minnesota over Detroit) to also win in blowout fashion along with Green Bay. However, Green Bay is a better choice for a week 2 winner than those other 4 options because:

1. Green Bay has 2 other projected blowout wins on the calendar. Week 3 on the road against St. Louis and week 6 at home against Detroit. However, in week 3, the Eagles are an even more likely winner at home against Kansas City. And in week 6, the Pittsburgh Steelers are an ever more likely winner at home against the Cleveland Browns. So we can use Green Bay now because we're planning to use Philadelphia and Pittsburgh those other weeks.

2. Not going to pick Minnesota on the road this week against Detroit because we're saving Minnesota for week 10 when they play Detroit at home (and are even more likely to win).

3. Not going to use Atlanta at home this week against Carolina because we're saving Atlanta for week 12 when they are home against Tampa Bay. The updated (week 2) ESPN power rankings say that Carolina is a much better team than Tampa Bay, so Atlanta will be even more likely to win in week 12 than this coming week.

4. Not going with Tennesee over Houston this week because we're planning to save Tennessee for week 14 when they are playing at home against St. Louis. St. Louis is a much worse team than Houston (at least according to the ESPN power rankings).

5. The last blowout option I am passing on is Washington to beat St. Louis in Washington. Unlike with the other 3 blowouts we are passing on, in the case of Washington, this is their most likely week to win as a favorite in their entire remaining schedule. However, using my formula based on the ESPN power rankings, the differential between Green Bay and Cincinnati in the coming week is greater than the differential between Washington and St. Louis.

Notes: I developed an Excel model to optimize winner picks for the entire NFL schedule so that the sum of the differential of all the games used is the largest. On Tuesday of each week, I update my Excel model with the latest ESPN power rankings, which are also updated on Tuesdays. From week to week, as the power rankings fluctuate, the optimal set of winners the model says to use for all remaining games will change. That is why I am not publishing my picks now for every single remaining week. I will just take the latest information, and use it to come up with the best possible pick for this week, but always keep the entire NFL schedule in mind. For more on the philosophy / algorithm / approach / methodology of the Excel picking model, please see the post announcing my winner pick from week 1.